油价对德黑兰证券交易所投资者情绪的动态影响:一个行业层面的分析

Seyed Hasan Masoudi Alavi, M. Nadiri, A. Saranj
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摘要

投资者情绪是影响金融市场的非基本面因素之一,金融市场本身受多种因素的影响,包括油价变化。本研究旨在利用2010年4月至2020年6月的月度数据,调查石油价格对德黑兰证券交易所(TSE)股票市场行业投资者情绪的影响。为了研究这一问题,我们将证券交易所行业分为三类:整体行业、石油相关行业和非石油行业,并使用混合平均组(PMG)技术检查了油价对这三组投资者情绪的影响。PMG方法考虑了序列之间的短期和长期关系,在动态异构面板模型的背景下提供了可靠的结果。在所有三种模型中,PMG的实施都显示了油价对投资者情绪的短期和长期影响。研究结果还表明,从长期来看,石油价格在三个模型中都具有正显著性,石油相关行业的石油价格系数高于非石油相关行业。这些结果与“石油价格对投资者情绪的动态影响”的结论相反。通过类似研究得出的结果,这可能是由于国家的特殊特征,例如石油出口国或石油进口国。
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The Dynamic Impact of Oil Price on Investor Sentiment in Tehran Stock Exchange: An Industry-Level Analysis
Investor sentiment is one of the non-fundamental factors that affect the financial markets, which itself is influenced by various factors, including oil price changes. This study aims to investigate the impact of oil price on investor sentiment in stock market industries in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) using monthly data from April 2010 to June 2020. To investigate this issue, stock exchange industries were grouped into three categories: total industries, oilrelated industries, and non-oil industries, and the effect of oil prices on investor sentiments in these three groups was examined using the pooled mean group (PMG) technique. The PMG approach considers both the shortand long-run relation between series and provides reliable results in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel models. The implementation of PMG in all three models shows the impact of oil prices on investor sentiment over both the short and long run. Findings suggest also that oil price has positive and significant in all three models in the long run and the oil price coefficient is higher in oil-related industries than non-oil-related industries. These results are the opposite of the 39 The Dynamic Impact of Oil Price on Investor Sentiment in... results obtained by similar studies, which can be due to the special features of countries, e.g. being oil exporters or oil importers.
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