酒店行业收费导向策略、股权结构与分析师预测准确性

Cédric Poretti, Adam Aoun, Manisha Singal
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摘要

本研究以国际上市酒店公司为样本,分析收费导向策略与股权结构之间的相互作用对分析师预测准确性的影响。基于金融分析师使用普通最小二乘回归(OLS)、熵平衡和Heckman两阶段模型做出的29,019个盈利预测,我们证明,平均而言,追求收费导向战略的公司的预测更准确。此外,对于股权集中的公司,收费导向策略对预测准确性的正向影响更强。我们通过以下事实来解释我们的结果:收费导向的公司拥有更稳定的现金流和收入,减少了公司外部和内部人员之间的信息不对称,从而使分析师能够做出更准确的预测。这种影响对所有权集中的公司尤其重要,因为它们向资本市场披露的信息通常较少。我们的研究结果应该对酒店公司的所有者、经理和董事会非常感兴趣。
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Fee-Oriented Strategies, Ownership Structure and Analyst Forecast Accuracy in the Hospitality Industry
This study analyzed the impact of the interplay between fee-oriented strategies and ownership structure on analyst forecast accuracy using a sample of international publicly-listed hospitality firms. Based on 29,019 earnings forecasts made by financial analysts, using Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS), entropy balancing, and Heckman two-stage models, we documented that, on average, forecasts were more accurate for firms pursuing a fee-oriented strategy. Moreover, the positive effect of fee-oriented strategies on forecast accuracy was stronger for companies with concentrated ownership. We explain our results by the fact that fee-oriented firms enjoyed more stable cash flows and revenue, reducing information asymmetries between a firm’s outsiders and insiders, thus enabling analysts to make more accurate forecasts. This effect was more important for firms with concentrated ownership in particular, as they generally disclosed less information to the capital markets. Our findings should be of great interest to hospitality firms’ owners, managers, and boards of directors.
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