加纳选举中影响选民选择的因素:以北部地区Kumbungu选区为例

Adams Sulemana Achanso, G. Benson, David Naya Zuure
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摘要

目的:在全球范围内,尤其是在非洲,研究人员似乎没有充分解释影响选民选择的潜在因素。因此,研究往往揭示了决定选民这种行为的无数因素。虽然一些学者认为理性是潜在因素,但其他人认为这方面存在特殊因素。这些相互矛盾的立场表明,选民作出选择的动机是多方面的。在加纳,很少有研究调查该国北部的这一现象。因此,本研究探讨了与加纳北部Kumbungu选区选举有关的现象。方法论:以三大主导理论为基础;本研究采用社会学模型、心理学模型和理性选择理论,采用解释序贯混合方法设计收集其数据。采用有目的抽样相结合的方法,选择信息丰富的案例。研究区域和选区的选择是基于关键案例抽样。本研究采用有目的的随机抽样,选取调查对象和访谈对象。调查对象是随机抽取的164人。此外,还进行了10次重要的举报人访谈。定性数据采用内容分析和专题分析进行分析。定量资料采用预测分析软件,采用描述性统计和回归分析。研究结果表明,选民的投票行为主要不受种族或地区关系等稳定和独特因素的影响,而是基于对政府绩效、经济状况和竞选议题的有意识评估来做出投票决定。此外,政府项目的发展影响、选民的种族和意识形态倾向也发挥了作用。因此,政治家们需要注意这一点,以赢得选民的心。独特的贡献和建议:本研究建议,如果执政政党希望保留和抓住政治权力,就应该始终努力推动和促进提高加纳选民生活水平的政策和计划。
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Factors Influencing Voters’ Choice in Elections in Ghana: A Case study of the Kumbungu Constituency of the Northern Region
Purpose: Globally, and most especially in Africa, researchers seem not to have sufficiently explained the underlying factors that influence electorates’ choices. Thus, studies often reveal a myriad of factors that determine this behavior of voters. While some scholars posit rationality as the underlying factor, others suggest idiosyncratic factors in that regard. These conflicting positions indicate that the motivation of electorates’ choices is multifaceted. In Ghana, few studies have investigated the phenomenon in the Northern part of the country. This study, therefore, explored the phenomenon with regard to elections in the Kumbungu Constituency of Northern Ghana. Methodology: Underpinned by the three dominant theories; the sociological model, the psychological model and the rational-choice theory, the study employed an explanatory sequential mixed-method design to gather data thereof. A combination of purposive sampling methods was employed to select information rich cases. The selection of the study region and constituency was based on critical case sampling. Purposeful random sampling was used to select respondents for the survey and interviews. A total of 164 respondents were randomly selected for the survey. Ten key informant interviews were also conducted. Qualitative data were analysed using content and thematic analysis. Quantitative data were analyzed using Predictive Analytic Software by employing descriptive statistics and regression.   Findings: The findings indicate that the voting behavior of electorates are not primarily influenced by stable and distinctive factors, such as ethnic or regional ties, but rather the electorate make voting decisions based on conscious evaluation of government performance, economic conditions, and campaign issues. Also, the developmental impact of government programs, ethnicity and ideological leaning of voters do play a role. Therefore, politicians need to heed this in their effort to win the hearts of voters. Unique Contribution and Recommendation: This study recommends that ruling political parties should always endeavor to promote and foster policies and programs that improve the living standards of the Ghanaian electorates if they desire to retain and cling on to political power.
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