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引用次数: 18

摘要

流行病学预测经常以指数增长为特征。由于粗心或无知,它的含义很容易被低估,有时甚至严重低估。谢尔登·李·格拉斯(Sheldon Lee Glashow)提供了一个简短的复习,并在棋盘传说中戏剧性地展示了指数增长的力量,这是由库尔德历史学家伊本Khallikān在公元1256年描述的。
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Exponential Growth
Exponential growth features frequently in epidemiological projections. Because of carelessness or ignorance, its implications can be easily, and sometimes grievously, underestimated. Sheldon Lee Glashow provides a brief refresher, along with a dramatic demonstration of the power of exponential growth as found in the legend of the chessboard, described in 1256 CE by the Kurdish historian Ibn Khallikān.
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