构造局部自归一化多变点测试的一般框架

Cheuk Hin Cheng, Kin Wai Chan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

提出了一种构造时间序列数据自归一化多变点检验的通用框架。唯一的构建块是用户指定的单更改点检测统计量,它涵盖了广泛的流行方法,包括累积和处理、离群鲁棒秩统计和顺序统计。既不需要对干扰参数进行鲁棒和一致的估计,也不需要选择带宽参数,也不需要预先指定变化点的数量。有限样本的性能表明,我们的建议是尺寸准确的,对备选假设的错误规范的鲁棒性,并且比现有的方法更强大。给出了纳斯达克期权成交量和沪港通成交量的案例分析。
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A General Framework for Constructing Locally Self-Normalized Multiple-Change-Point Tests
We propose a general framework to construct self-normalized multiple-change-point tests with time series data. The only building block is a user-specified one-change-point detecting statistic, which covers a wide class of popular methods, including cumulative sum process, outlier-robust rank statistics and order statistics. Neither robust and consistent estimation of nuisance parameters, selection of bandwidth parameters, nor pre-specification of the number of change points is required. The finite-sample performance shows that our proposal is size-accurate, robust against misspecification of the alternative hypothesis, and more powerful than existing methods. Case studies of NASDAQ option volume and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect turnover are provided.
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