Understanding the Conflict in Libya: Strategic Options and Pathways

Abstract The conflict in Libya is a product of controversial and complex developmental issues; events in local politics have been influenced strongly and propelled by factors that are both exogenous and endogenous. On April 4, 2019, General Khalifa Haftar ordered the Libyan National Army to launch an offensive and subdue Tripoli. This triggered the Government of National Accord (GNA) to mobilise its armed forces and react accordingly, bringing to a standstill the political process that was underway. The attack occurred a couple of days prior to the National Conference scheduled for April 14–16, which was to be facilitated by the United Nations (UN). Since then, re-engagement efforts have been made by several international, regional, and national actors to forge a cessation-of-hostilities agreement for the resumption of political dialogue. The hostility, mainly concentrated in the southern part of Tripoli, has caused several civilian fatalities and casualties and seriously damaged infrastructure for civilians. The Libyan conflict has heightened forced displacements and humanitarian needs, impeding access to health care, food, and other basic services. A desktop study and literature review were conducted to explore and understand these conflict dynamics. It was revealed that, contrary to pervasive misconceptions, the forces hostile to Haftar are predominantly volunteers and not institutionalised militias. Islamists, who are political elements, form a negligible part of these forces, with well-known criminals active on the two conflicting sides, though essentially more prevalent in Haftar’s forces. Strategic options and pathways for Libya and the African Union (AU) are recommended for ending the conflict.