{"title":"风电项目威布尔参数估计的经济效应","authors":"C. Ramos-Robles, A. Irizarry-Rivera","doi":"10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we analyze wind measurements using the Weibull probability density function (PDF). We estimate the shape factor (k) and the scale factor (c) of a Weibull PDF using maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the least squares estimation (LSE) method. We then compare the energy production results that would be obtained when using the parameters estimated with each method. An economical analysis is performed to show the effects of overestimating or underestimating energy production caused by an erroneous estimation of the Weibull PDF parameters. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to asses the economical risk that the shape and scale parameters represent to the outcome of the project.","PeriodicalId":101495,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 37th Annual North American Power Symposium, 2005.","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2005-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"10","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Economical effects of the Weibull parameter estimation on wind energy projects\",\"authors\":\"C. Ramos-Robles, A. Irizarry-Rivera\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this paper we analyze wind measurements using the Weibull probability density function (PDF). We estimate the shape factor (k) and the scale factor (c) of a Weibull PDF using maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the least squares estimation (LSE) method. We then compare the energy production results that would be obtained when using the parameters estimated with each method. An economical analysis is performed to show the effects of overestimating or underestimating energy production caused by an erroneous estimation of the Weibull PDF parameters. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to asses the economical risk that the shape and scale parameters represent to the outcome of the project.\",\"PeriodicalId\":101495,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the 37th Annual North American Power Symposium, 2005.\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2005-12-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"10\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the 37th Annual North American Power Symposium, 2005.\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the 37th Annual North American Power Symposium, 2005.","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/NAPS.2005.1560595","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Economical effects of the Weibull parameter estimation on wind energy projects
In this paper we analyze wind measurements using the Weibull probability density function (PDF). We estimate the shape factor (k) and the scale factor (c) of a Weibull PDF using maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the least squares estimation (LSE) method. We then compare the energy production results that would be obtained when using the parameters estimated with each method. An economical analysis is performed to show the effects of overestimating or underestimating energy production caused by an erroneous estimation of the Weibull PDF parameters. Finally a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to asses the economical risk that the shape and scale parameters represent to the outcome of the project.
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