摆脱“封锁”的陷阱:经济发展与政治竞争的动态模型

M. Dolfin, D. Knopoff, L. Leonida, Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti
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引用次数: 26

摘要

本文提出了一个随机博弈型相互作用的动力学模型,分析了社会政治竞争水平与经济自由化程度之间的关系。上述问题涉及旨在在社会中引入技术创新的经济和制度政策之间的复杂相互作用,其中技术创新的目的是在广义上理解对生产至关重要的改革。本文特别关注Acemoglu和Robinson在宏观模型(以下简称ar模型)中描述的政治替代效应,该模型可以确定创新“阻塞”现象,并可能导致经济落后。我们建模的目标之一是获得一个介观动力学模型,其宏观输出在质量上可与ar模型的程式化事实相媲美。本文给出了经济自由化与政治竞争之间的非单调关系的一组数值解,这可以看作是复杂的社会经济相互作用动态的一种新兴现象。
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Escaping the trap of 'blocking': a kinetic model linking economic development and political competition
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce technological innovations in a society, where technological innovations are intended in a broad sense comprehending reforms critical to production. A special focus is placed on the political replacement effect described in a macroscopic model by Acemoglu and Robinson (AR-model, henceforth), which can determine the phenomenon of innovation 'blocking', possibly leading to economic backwardness. One of the goals of our modelization is to obtain a mesoscopic dynamical model whose macroscopic outputs are qualitatively comparable with stylized facts of the AR-model. A set of numerical solutions is presented showing the non monotonous relationship between economic liberization and political competition, which can be considered as an emergent phenomenon of the complex socio-economic interaction dynamic.
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