发展中国家经济表现对其信用评级的金融经济影响{1996-2018年埃及信用评级的应用研究}

Ghada Ghanem
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摘要

本研究旨在研究1996-2018年期间埃及经济表现对信用评级的动态影响,包括对每个变量的季度观察。本研究采用ARDL边界检验方法建立了这些关系,结果表明信用评级、(GDP)增长国内生产总值和(FDI)对外直接投资之间存在着短期和长期的正相关关系,而预算赤字、外债、汇率与信用评级之间存在着短期和长期的显著负相关关系。这一结果表明,国内生产总值、外国直接投资、外汇储备和预算赤字是影响埃及经济表现和信用评级的重要宏观经济变量。
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The Financial & Economic Impact of the Performance of Developing Countries’ Economies on Their Credit Rating {Applied study on Egypt’s credit rating during the period (1996-2018)}
This study aims to examines the dynamic effects of economic performance on credit ratings in Egypt during the period (1996-2018) consisting of quarterly observations for each variable. The study adopted the ARDL bounds testing approach to establish these relationships which showed that there exists a positive short run and long-run relationship between the credit rating, (GDP) growth domestic product and (FDI) foreign direct investment, while there are significant negative relationships in both short and long run between budget deficit, external debt, exchange rate and the credit rating. This result implies that GDP, FDI, foreign reserve and budget deficit are essential macroeconomic variables that influence the economic performance and the credit rating in Egypt.
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