根据归纳问题,发展经济学中使用的随机评估的外部主张可以被视为知识吗?

Muthhukumar Palaniyapan
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摘要

在发展经济学中,越来越多地使用随机评估(REs)来理解和预测特定干预措施的影响。然而,对它们的认识论研究却很少。人们往往会称赞随机评估产生高度合理的内部主张的能力。样本随机分为两组。研究中的干预措施只适用于一个群体。另一组作为对照,使结果的任何差异更紧密地归因于干预。然而,归纳法的中心问题仍然削弱了RE的外部主张——预测。在本文中,我探讨了:1)RE的外部主张的认识论地位是如何被归纳法问题削弱的。2)问题的可能解决方案或回避方法是什么?它们是多么有效和适当? 3)事实上,为什么REs的独特方法允许其外部主张克服归纳问题。
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Can External Claims of Randomised Evaluations Used in Developmental Economics Be Considered Knowledge, in Light of the Problem of Induction?
Randomised Evaluations(REs) are being increasingly used in Developmental Economics to understand and predict the impact of specific interventions. However there has been little known epistemological examination of them. Often praise is reserved for the ability of randomised evaluations to generate highly justified internal claims. Samples are randomly allocated into 2 groups. The intervention under study is only applied to one group. The other serves as control, enabling any difference in results to be more closely attributed to the intervention. However, the central problem of induction still undermines the external claims - the predictions - of REs. In this essay I explore: 1)How the epistemic status of RE’s external claims is undermined by the problem of induction. 2)What are the possible solutions or evasions to the problem and how effective and appropriate they are 3)Why in fact the unique methodology of REs allows its external claims to overcome the problem of induction.
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