新加坡应对极端水文气候变化的韧性和公众教育

C. Chang, K. Irvine
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While resilience has been a concept used frequently in climate change adaptation, it is derived from ecology, where it refers to the capacity of the system to respond to a disturbance and resist the impact or recover from the damage of the disturbance. This paper examines the case of Singapore as an urban area in responding to a similar extreme hydrologic phenomenon by examining the climate Original Research Article British Journal of Environment & Climate Change, 4(3): 328-354, 2014 329 change resilience of the small city-state, with a view to recommending some considerations in designing climate change adaptation strategies. Place of Study: Singapore and peninsular Malaysia. 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引用次数: 12

摘要

目的:2014年2月和3月,在马来西亚吉隆坡和周边的雪兰莪州,超过30万户家庭受到水配给的影响。再往南,新加坡的水库水位正在下降,这促使政府提高了节约用水的言论,但没有实施水配给计划。该地区经历了近30年来前所未有的干旱期。自2001年、2006年和2007年在半岛南部和新加坡发生的极端高降水事件导致代价高昂的洪水破坏以来,对风暴的准备一直是“城镇的话题”。虽然复原力一直是气候变化适应中经常使用的一个概念,但它源于生态学,指的是系统对干扰作出反应并抵抗影响或从干扰的损害中恢复的能力。本文通过对气候变化的研究,考察了新加坡作为一个城市地区应对类似的极端水文现象的案例。《英国环境与气候变化杂志》,4(3):328-354,2014年329。学习地点:新加坡和马来西亚半岛。方法:本文回顾了新加坡过去30年的极端降雨统计数据,然后采用基于水文事件的案例研究方法,更仔细地研究了创纪录风暴和2014年3月干旱的影响,讨论了韧性的各个方面,这些方面可以作为热带城市未来适应气候变化世界的经验教训。结果:近30年来,新加坡极端降雨事件越来越频繁,其中2014年2月是自1869年以来最干旱的2月。2014年2月的日相对湿度也是最低的,为74.5%。由于地处赤道附近,预计不会有热带气旋袭击新加坡。然而,2001年12月27日,台风“Vamei”却创造了历史,带来了210毫米的降雨。2007年12月19日至20日期间,新加坡的降雨量为366毫米,在同一周内,另一场风暴在24小时内降下了140毫米的降雨。虽然2014年2月的干旱对环境和健康造成了一些影响,包括水中溶解氧含量低和局部鱼类死亡,以及有报告称人类呼吸道问题更严重,但新加坡通过要求采取自愿保护措施、谨慎的水库管理以及增加新水和淡化水的产量,得以抵御干旱。最近的极端降雨事件造成了局部洪水,但新加坡已逐步推行改善排水、溪流自然化和实施低影响发展(LID)技术的计划,将洪水易发地区从20世纪70年代的3200公顷减少到今天的36公顷。结论:我们并不建议所有国家都需要新水或淡化水来解决干旱问题。我们确实认为,在管理与降雨有关的灾害时,干旱和极端情况已经得到相当独立的处理。基于对新加坡极端情况的案例研究,我们提出了建立一个三步准备计划的重要性,包括准备(脆弱性和风险识别,适应能力建设和监测),响应(信息传播和救援行动)和恢复。
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Climate change resilience and public education in response to hydrologic extremes in Singapore
Aims: In February and March 2014, more than 300,000 households were affected by water rationing in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and the surrounding State of Selangor. Further south, reservoir levels in Singapore were dropping, prompting the government to raise the water conservation rhetoric, but falling short of implementing water rationing schemes. The region experienced a dry spell that was unprecedented in the last 30 years. Preparedness for storms has been the "talk of the town" since the 2001, 2006 and 2007 extreme high precipitation events in the southern parts of the peninsula and in Singapore resulted in costly flood damage. While resilience has been a concept used frequently in climate change adaptation, it is derived from ecology, where it refers to the capacity of the system to respond to a disturbance and resist the impact or recover from the damage of the disturbance. This paper examines the case of Singapore as an urban area in responding to a similar extreme hydrologic phenomenon by examining the climate Original Research Article British Journal of Environment & Climate Change, 4(3): 328-354, 2014 329 change resilience of the small city-state, with a view to recommending some considerations in designing climate change adaptation strategies. Place of Study: Singapore and peninsular Malaysia. Methodology: The paper reviews the rainfall extremes statistics covering the last 30 years for Singapore and then takes a hydrologic event-based case study approach to more closely examine the impact of record storms and the drought of March 2014 to discuss aspects of resilience that can serve as lessons for tropical cities in future adaptation to a climate-changing world. Results: Extreme rainfall events have become more frequent in Singapore over the past 30 years, while February, 2014 was the driest February since 1869. February, 2014 also had the lowest recorded daily relative humidity at 74.5%. Tropical cyclones are not expected to hit Singapore because of its location near the equator, yet Typhoon Vamei made history by delivering 210 mm of rain on 27 December, 2001. Between 19 and 20 December, 2007 Singapore received 366 mm of rain and within the same week another storm deposited 140 mm of rain in a 24 hour period. While there were some environmental and health impacts related to the February 2014 drought, including low dissolved oxygen levels in water and a localized fish kill, as well as reports of greater human respiratory problems, Singapore was able to weather the drought by requesting voluntary conservation measures, prudent reservoir management, and increasing the output of NEWater and desalinized water. Recent extreme rainfall events have produced localized flooding, but Singapore has progressively pursued a program of improved drainage, stream naturalization, and implementation of Low Impact Development (LID) technology to reduce flood-prone areas from 3,200 ha in the 1970’s to 36 ha today. Conclusion: We do not suggest that all countries need to have NEWater or desalinated water to solve drought problems. We do suggest that in managing rainfall related hazards, droughts and extremes have been treated rather independently. Based on the case study of extremes presented for Singapore we propose the importance of establishing a three-step preparedness program for extremes that includes Preparation (vulnerability and risk identification, adaptive capacity building, and monitoring), Response (information dissemination and relief action), and Recovery.
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