基于Barra风险模型的中国股市特质动量分析

Sean Lu, Cindy Lu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们提出了一种利用Barra全球多因素风险模型构建特质动量因子的不同方法。此外,我们通过将其应用于中国股票市场来检验这个新因素的性质和表现。我们的分析表明,这里构建的特殊动量因子与传统的价格动量因子相似,但方差和暴露于常见市场因素(如价值、规模和波动性)的风险要小得多。在对中国a股IMI和沪深500印度指数的多空组合测试中,我们观察到该因素的回报比传统动量显著改善。特别是,这个因素提供了持续的高回报,适度的IC增加,但显著的IR改善。绩效结果强烈表明,与传统动量因子相比,特质动量因子更可靠,对未来股票收益具有较高的预测能力。在构建有效的中国股票市场动量投资策略时,该因子可以替代传统的动量因子。
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Barra Risk Model Based Idiosyncratic Momentum for Chinese Equity Market
We propose a different way of constructing an idiosyncratic momentum factor using the Barra Global Multi-factor Risk Model. Also, we examine the properties as well as the performance of this new factor by applying it to the China's stock market. Out analysis shows that the idiosyncratic momentum factor constructed here carries the resemblance of the conventional price momentum factor, but with much lower variance and exposure to the common market factors, such as value, size, and volatility. In the long-short portfolio test for both China's A-Share IMI and CSI 500 Indies, we observe the significant improvement of this factor's return over the conventional momentum. In particular, this factor delivers consistent high returns with a moderate IC increase but a significant IR improvement. The performance results strongly suggest that, compared with the traditional momentum factor, the idiosyncratic momentum factor is more reliable and possesses high predictive power for future stock returns. This factor is a good candidate to replace the traditional momentum factor when constructing an effective momentum strategy for investing in China's stock market.
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