外汇储备增长:印度基础设施发展的潜在来源?

J. Saha, Tarumoy Chaudhuri
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摘要

自从1991年印度政府提出的新经济政策开始实施以来,印度经济在国内外都发生了重大变化。国内宏观经济已趋于稳定,对外贸易也有了新的方向。在过去的16年里,世界见证了印度从一个发展中经济体转变为一个新兴经济体。它和中国一起被称为亚洲超级大国。过去强劲的服务业表现,特别是在IT和ITeS领域,国内明智的财政和货币政策,最重要的是,审慎的外交政策,使印度在世界上增长最快的经济体名单中名列第二。这反过来又将全球经济重心向印度转移。但是,地毯下也蒙上了许多灰尘。这个词主要用于该国的基础设施,是令人沮丧的。这引发了一个重大问题——印度的增长势头是否会在长期停滞,而基础设施是罪魁祸首?基础设施(包括物质和人力)是一个国家的支柱。尽管如果印度想要更多的外国投资,就必须达到全球标准,但印度在这方面做得很少。我们的论点是:为什么我们不能利用我们多年来积累的巨额外汇储备的一部分,而不是通过引入税收、附加费和税费在国内部门筹集资金?研究表明,我国外汇储备的构成是比较合理的。即使在紧急情况下,我们仍然可以避免亚洲四小龙在上世纪90年代末所面临的情况。如果印度央行将一小部分贷款给国内经济的实体部门,它维持其安全、流动性和回报(相对于外汇储备)的政策将不会受到阻碍。我们可以学习其他亚洲经济体所遵循的程序,并对其进行修改,以满足我们的需要。或者我们可以制定自己的政策有利于我们的环境。基础设施建设将同时对上游和下游产生影响,这肯定会消除一个挥之不去的问题:印度能继续发展下去吗?
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Rising Foreign Exchange Reserves: A Potential Source for Infrastructural Development in India?
Since the inception and execution of the New Economic Policy introduced by the Government of India in 1991, the Indian economy has seen significant changes both in the domestic and the foreign front. There have been macroeconomic stabilizations within the country as well as new directions in foreign trade. In the past 16 years the world has seen India transform from a developing economy to an emerging economy. Along with China, it is being referred to as an Asian superpower. The past performance of a robust service industry, specially in the field of IT and ITeS, judicious fiscal and monetary policies in the home front and above all, prudential foreign policies have catapulted India to the second position in the list of the fastest growing economies of the world. This is in turn, shifting the global economic centre of gravity towards India. But much dust has also been put under the carpet. The term which is mostly used for infrastructure in the country is dismal. This raises a major question - Will India's growth momentum come to a halt in the long run, infrastructure being the main culprit? The infrastructure (both physical and human) is the backbone of a country. Although it is necessary for India to meet global standards if it wants more of foreign investments, little has been done about it. Instead of raising funds in the domestic sector through the introduction of taxes, surcharges and cesses for the cause, our argument is: Why can't we utilize a part of the huge foreign reserves which we have amassed over the years? Studies show that the composition of our foreign reserves is quite comfortable. Even in times of dire necessities, we can still avoid situations like what the Asian Tigers have faced in late 1990s. The RBI's maintenance of its policy of safety, liquidity and returns (with respect to foreign reserves) will not be hampered if it lends a small portion to the real sector in the domestic economy. We can learn from the procedures followed by other Asian economies and modify them to meet our needs. Or we can formulate our own policies conducive to our environment. Infrastructure development will have both upstream and downstream effects and that is sure to wipe off that nagging question: Can India continue?
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