埃及和世界冠状病毒发病率、恢复率和死亡率的发展:医学地理学研究

Mohamed Nour Eldin Elsabawy
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摘要

本文旨在研究2020年2月至2020年8月1日期间埃及发病率、恢复率和死亡率的发展情况,并与世界范围内的情况进行比较。并回答了一些问题,包括:埃及的冠状病毒感染率和恢复率是否与世界各国相当?埃及的死亡率与全球的死亡率相称吗?在埃及和世界上,冠状病毒病的发病率、恢复和死亡曲线的模式是什么?基于以上,是否有可能预测Corona在埃及和世界的未来?该疾病在全球的发病率呈对数增长,从2月14日的每10万人0.7例,到2020年7月10日达到每10万人166例,通过比较埃及的发病率,3月13日的发病率为每10万人0.09例,到2020年7月10日上升到每10万人80.2例。同期,世界各地的康复率从感染人数的12.1%上升到2020年7月10日的58.3%,而在埃及,康复率是全球百分比的一半。2020年7月10日,病死率从世界的2.7%上升到4.5%,埃及的病死率与世界相近。新冠肺炎疫情的发病率和致死率虽然在埃及和世界有逐渐下降的趋势,但也在提高康复率。除了感染病例和死亡病例每天都在波动这使得我们很难预测疾病的未来一方面是围绕它的不确定性,另一方面是缺乏预防疾病的疫苗。
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Development of Corona virus Morbidity, Recovery and Fatality rates in Egypt and the world: A study in medical geography
This paper aims to study the development of morbidity, recovery and fatality rates in Egypt during the period from February 2020 to the first of August 2020 and compare them worldwide. And answers a number of questions, including: Are the rates of infection and recovery for Corona disease in Egypt commensurate with those in the world?. Are the fatality rates in Egypt commensurate with global rates? What is the pattern of the Corona virus disease morbidity, recovery and death curve, in Egypt and the world? Based on the above, is it possible to predict the future of Corona in Egypt and the world ? The incidence of the disease in the world increased logarithmically from 0.7 per 100,000 people on February 14, reach to 166 per 100,000 on July 10, 2020, and by comparing this rate for Egypt, the rate was 0.09 per 100,000 in 13 March, rising to 80.2 per 100,000 people on July 10, 2020. Recovery rates in the world during the same period increased from 12.1% of the number of infected to 58.3% on July 10, 2020, while in Egypt, recovery rates it is half of the global percentage. The percentage of Fatality rates increased from 2.7% in the world, to 4.5% on July 10, 2020 , while the percentage in Egypt is close to it in the world Morbidity and fatality rates of the Corona epidemic, although they tend to gradually decrease in Egypt and the world,also increase the recovery rate , except that the fluctuation of cases of infection and death due to disease from day to day makes it’s difficult to predict the future of the disease in the time of ambiguity surrounding it on the one hand, and the absence of a vaccine that helps protect against the disease on the other hand.
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