内源性灾害

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Lu Zhang, L. Kuehn
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引用次数: 3

摘要

劳动力市场的摩擦对理解金融市场的股权溢价很重要。我们将Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides搜索框架嵌入到具有递归偏好的动态随机一般均衡模型中。该模型产生了现实的股票溢价和股票市场波动,以及低而稳定的利率。股票溢价是逆周期的,可以通过劳动力市场的紧缩来预测,我们在数据中证实了这一模式。有趣的是,模型中的三个关键因素(小利润、大工作流动和匹配摩擦)结合在一起,内生地产生了罕见的灾难(la Rietz(1988)和Barro(2006))。
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Endogenous Disasters
Frictions in the labor market are important for understanding the equity premium in the financial market. We embed the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search framework into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with recursive preferences. The model produces realistic equity premium and stock market volatility, as well as a low and stable interest rate. The equity premium is countercyclical, and forecastable with labor market tightness, a pattern we confirm in the data. Intriguingly, three key ingredients (small profits, large job flows, and matching frictions) in the model combine to give rise endogenously to rare disasters a la Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006).
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