Risk Shifting or Just Risk-Adjusted Returns

Intuitively, option-like compensation contracts induce risk-shifting behavior, confirmed by numerous empirical studies. However, theoretical work has shown that risk shifting should not happen without a definite expiration date of the option. With a sample of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), we show that increases in risk (interpreted as risk shifting) correspond to even greater increases in return, as shown by increasing Sharpe ratios. Second, controlling for expected returns eliminates measured risk shifting. Finally, measured risk shifting behavior, strong between 1994 and 2003, is substantially lower or missing from 2004 to 2014. Thus, we conclude that CTAs are increasing risk adjusted returns, not risk shifting, confirming the theoretical results.