结合分解算法和生成对抗网络的滑坡位移预测

Mengfei Xu, Jiejie Chen, Honggang Yang, Tongfei Xiao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

滑坡位移预测是建立滑坡预警系统的基础。为了更好地掌握滑坡的演化过程,本文提出了一种新的变分模分解生成对抗网络(VMD-GAN)预测滑坡位移的体系结构。首先,利用VMD将时间序列分解为多个内禀模态函数(IMFs),提取原始序列的内部隐藏信息,去除噪声的干扰,提高模型的预测精度;然后,用GAN对各imf进行预测。最后,将各分量的预测结果相加,得到最终的预测结果。以三峡库区白水河为例,选取2003年8月至2011年12月的位移数据进行分析。与经验模式分解-生成对抗网络(EMDGAN)、长短期记忆(LSTM)和时间卷积网络(TCN)模型相比,VMD-GAN预测滑坡的均方根误差(RMSE)为3.33,相关系数r方为0.99,显示出最好的预测精度和拟合能力。
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Combined with Decomposition Algorithm and Generative Adversarial Networks on Landslide Displacement Prediction
Landslide displacement prediction is essential to establishing the early warning system (EWS). To better grasp the landslide evolution process, this paper proposes a novel architecture of variational mode decomposition-Generative Adversarial Network (VMD-GAN) for forecasting the landslide displacement. Firstly, VMD was used to decompose the time series into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) to extract the internal hidden information of the original series and remove the interference of noise to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Then, GAN predicts each IMFs. Finally, the predicted results for each IMFs component are added to get the final prediction result. The Baishuihe in the Three Gorges Reservoir was made as an example and displacement data from August 2003 to December 2011 were selected for analysis. Compared with empirical mode decomposition-Generative Adversarial Network(EMDGAN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and temporal convolutional networks (TCN) models, the result has shown that the root means square errors (RMSE) of VMD-GAN in landslide prediction was 3.33 and the correlation coefficient R-square was 0.99, which demonstrated the best prediction accuracy and fitting ability.
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