Estimating the Likelihood of Reaching a Road Target Using Multiple Lane Changes for Driver Assistance

This paper presents a model to estimate the probability of reaching a target position on the road using multiple lane changes based on parameters corresponding to traffic flow and driving behavior. Knowing this information can help design advance warning systems that increase driver safety and traffic efficiency. The model is first developed for a two-lane road segment where traffic conditions are simplified to reach an abstract formulation. It is then extended to cases with a higher number of lanes using the law of total probability. Finally, the model is used in two sample cases to illustrate its predictions and the effect of different parameters on the results.