Rethinking the Future of Energy: Scenarios for 2050

The global energy market is going through the unprecedented change. Ability to identify what driving forces will be transforming the markets in coming decades and shape the future of energy is a key for policymakers and industry in developing better working strategies. At the same time, the volatile context, complexity, and interdependence of the driving forces make the future energy landscape so uncertain and ambiguous that forecasts and predictions do not work.

With this in mind, we have applied a scenario approach that in our view provides a viable alternative to predictions. Scenarios not only help in mapping the possible futures but also get better prepared to act accordingly. The paper provides four possible scenarios of the future of energy and discusses challenges and opportunities in each one of them, suggesting implications for business and policymakers. The pace of innovations in energy and digital technologies alongside with the severeness of the international stance on the climate change will eventually define whether conventional business models can dominate in the future and what will be different in energy systems of the developed and the emerging economies.