基于利益的谈判与战略方法:附录C ITAIPU两国案例研究

Manuel García, V. Oxilia, Ricardo Careaga, F. Fernández
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在地球上最大的水力发电厂的所有者之间最重要的地缘政治谈判的到来,巴拉圭和巴西,这涉及到新能源贸易价格,本文提出了一种方法,以达成有利于双方的协议,并揭示了战略,以加强巴拉圭在谈判桌上的地位。在考虑实际生产成本、补偿权利金和当前能源市场价格的情况下,运用博弈论对有限和无限两种博弈方案进行了基于利益的双边谈判分析。由此得出的诊断将时间视为一个基本标准,以及建立杠杆的自主权。最后,通过比较两种数学模型,我们证明,尽早开始谈判将为巴拉圭带来最好的可能结果。
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Interest Based Negotiation with a Strategic Approach: Annex C ITAIPU Binational Case Study
In the advent of the single most important geopolitical negotiation between the owners of the largest hydroelectric power plant in the planet, Paraguay and Brazil, which involves new energy trade prices, this paper proposes a methodology to reach an agreement favorable for both parties, and reveals strategies to strengthen Paraguay’s position at the negotiation table. A bilateral negotiation analysis based on interests applying game theory in finite and infinite play schemes is conducted, considering the real costs of production, compensation royalties and current energy market prices. The resulting diagnose recognizes time as a fundamental criterion, as well as autonomy, to build up leverage. Finally, by comparing both mathematical models we demonstrate that initiating the negotiation as soon as possible will render the best possible outcome for Paraguay.
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