Exploring Possible Futures

This chapter discusses the nature of exploring possible futures, not in terms of case studies, but with a higher-level view of the overall process. Six themes—investments, stakeholders, change, decisions, design, and prediction—are reflected in most of the key points in this book. Clearly, exploring possible futures concerns investments in pursuing these futures involving multiple stakeholders and significant change. Models are employed to frame decisions, assess alternative designs, and make predictions about what might happen. Typical explorations involve planning new generations of existing product lines and new application domains for existing technology capabilities, assessing technology options for enabling new offerings, and addressing major enterprise challenges. Explorations should begin by focusing on desirability in terms of the “preference space” of major stakeholders. At the same time, avoid consideration of feasibility in the sense of what is achievable in the “physical space” of the domain of interest.