储备积累、通货膨胀和道德风险:来自自然实验的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE International Finance Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI:10.1111/infi.12391

Livia Chițu

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引用次数: 3

摘要

本研究检验了国际储备积累是否由于道德风险和激励效应而导致通货膨胀。我们以2009年特别提款权(SDR)分配为自然实验，追踪外生非货币冲击对国际货币基金组织成员国储备持有的影响。在获得大量特别提款权分配的国家，在控制其他标准决定因素的情况下，在分配后的两年里，通货膨胀率高出约0.5个百分点。这种影响与这些国家可自由支配的财政赤字规模相称。这一结果与储备积累由于激励效应可能导致通货膨胀的假设是一致的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Reserve accumulation, inflation, and moral hazard: Evidence from a natural experiment

This study tests whether international reserve accumulation is inflationary because of moral hazard and incentive effects. We use the 2009 allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as a natural experiment to trace the effect of an exogenous nonmonetary shock on International Monetary Fund members' reserve holdings. In countries that received large SDR allocations, inflation was about half a percentage point higher in the 2 years following the allocation, controlling for other standard determinants. This effect is commensurate with the size of these countries' discretionary fiscal deficits. This result is consistent with the hypothesis that reserve accumulation may be inflationary because of incentive effects.

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来源期刊

International Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Finance is a highly selective ISI-accredited journal featuring literate and policy-relevant analysis in macroeconomics and finance. Specific areas of focus include: · Exchange rates · Monetary policy · Political economy · Financial markets · Corporate finance The journal''s readership extends well beyond academia into national treasuries and corporate treasuries, central banks and investment banks, and major international organizations. International Finance publishes lucid, policy-relevant writing in macroeconomics and finance backed by rigorous theory and empirical analysis. In addition to the core double-refereed articles, the journal publishes non-refereed themed book reviews by invited authors and commentary pieces by major policy figures. The editor delivers the vast majority of first-round decisions within three months.