不同的发展经验:中国与拉美发展趋势概观

Jael Cortes Rondoy
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摘要

本文通过对发展的定义,回归生产能力的作用并支持结构变革,考察了两个关键因素及其趋势:工业化和贸易模式。通过对1980-2019年期间经济因素的分析,本文旨在深入了解导致中国和拉丁美洲发展结果差异的因素,并特别关注智利和墨西哥的案例。包括年度GDP增长、占世界GDP的份额和人均GDP在内的指标将被用来表明中国在增长方面已经超过了拉丁美洲。此外,它还将证明,当拉丁美洲正在经历一个去工业化的趋势,其证据是制造业的下降和高技术出口水平低,中国经历了快速的工业化。此外,中国的出口也说明,中国已经从生产和出口低价值制成品,转变为生产和出口附加值更高的更复杂产品,而智利未能摆脱对自然资源的依赖。以墨西哥为例,尽管其出口并不集中在初级商品上,但它们是建立在“加工厂”(maquiladora)模式上的,这使其处于工业价值链的最底层。
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Divergent Development experiences: A general outlook of China and Latin America’s Development trends
Following a definition of development that brings back the role of productive capabilities and endorses structural change, this paper examines two key elements and their trends: industrialization and trade patterns. Through the analysis of economic factors covering the period 1980-2019, this paper aims to offer insights into the elements that have led to divergent development outcomes in China and Latin America, paying particular attention to the cases of Chile and Mexico. Indicators including yearly GDP growth, the share of the world GDP, and per-capita GDP will be used to show that China has outpaced Latin America in terms of growth. Moreover, it will also be demonstrated that while Latin America is experiencing a deindustrialization trend, evidenced by a decline in the manufacturing sector and low levels of high-technology exports, China has experienced rapid industrialization. Moreover, China's exports serve as an illustration of a country that transitioned from producing and exporting low-value manufactured items to more complex goods with higher added value, while Chile has not been able to leave behind its reliance on natural resources. In the case of Mexico, although its exports are not concentrated in primary commodities, they are built on a maquiladora model that relegates it to the bottom of industrial value chains.
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