自力更生:孟加拉国可以从一些气候变化中拯救自己

R. Litan
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摘要

2021年中期的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC 2021)将加剧这些担忧。尽管ipcc没有实质性地改变其早期报告的中心预测,即在政策和改善气候技术没有实质性变化的情况下,到本世纪末,全球气温预计将比1900年的水平至少上升3摄氏度,但2021年的报告对这一结果的不确定性要小得多。3度的上升听起来可能不是很多,但在气候变化的世界里,天气的变化和冰的融化以一种高度非线性的方式对变暖的温度做出反应,这种幅度的温度上升预示着灾难性的影响。这些影响何时成为现实取决于这种增长发生的速度。冰的融化需要时间,而全球气温上升所需的时间越长——由于全球排放和碳捕捉技术的逐渐变化,这种情况更有可能发生——海平面的最终上升幅度就会越高。矛盾的是,全球气温的快速上升随后趋于平稳——这种情况与气候变化政策和技术的短期延迟有关——孟加拉国可以在某种程度上避免气候变化
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On Its Own: Bangladesh Can Save Itself from Some Climate Change
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2021) in mid-2021 aggravate these worries. Although the panel did not materially change its central projection from earlier reports—that in the absence of substantial change in policies and climate-improving technologies, global temperatures are projected to rise by at least three degrees centigrade above 1900 levels by the end of the century—the 2021 report expressed much less uncertainty about that outcome. A three-degree increase may not sound like a lot, but in the world of climate change, where changes in weather and melting ice respond in a highly nonlinear fashion to warming temperatures, a temperature increase of that magnitude portends catastrophic effects. When those effects will materialize depends on how quickly that increase occurs. It takes time for ice to melt, and the longer it takes global temperatures to rise—a scenario made more likely by gradual global changes in emissions and carbon-capture technology—the higher the ultimate increase in sea levels will be. Paradoxically, a faster increase in global temperatures that then levels off—a scenario associated with short-run delays in climate change policy and technological ON ITS OWN: BANGLADESH CAN SAVE ITSELF FROM SOME CLIMATE CHANGE
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