电力的动态和静态对冲:我们在哪里?

M. Madaleno, C. Pinho
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引用次数: 0

摘要

像期货这样的衍生品合约通常被用来降低现货市场波动带来的风险。在这项工作中,我们使用德国电力市场的月度期货合约,通过多元GARCH对角BEKK模型有条件地估计最小方差套期保值比率,并通过OLS, naïve策略和小波无条件地估计最小方差套期保值比率。即使在方差减少方面很低,结果表明,与静态对冲和小波时间尺度分解相比,动态对冲提供了更好的收益。
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Dynamic and static hedging in electricity: Where do we stand?
Derivative contracts like futures are usually used to reduce the risk from variations in the spot market. In this work we use monthly futures contracts in the German electricity market, estimating the minimum variance hedge ratio conditionally by the multivariate GARCH diagonal BEKK model and unconditionally by OLS, the naïve strategy and wavelets. Even if low in terms of variance reduction, results indicate that dynamic hedging provides superior gains compared to those obtained from static hedging and wavelet time-scale decompositions.
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