资金转移、收入对发展指标的调节效应

Sabda Alam, B. H. Simanjuntak
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摘要

衡量一个国家在实施发展方面的成功程度的工具之一是人类发展指数计算方法。从本质上讲,发展是朝向较好条件的一种变化,因此发展活动的结果将对预算的产生产生影响,最终需要资金来实现发展活动。在印度尼西亚实施财政权力下放的24年中,向各区域转移的数额大大增加。然而,增加区域收入的努力往往被忽视,因此财政权力下放到自给自足的区域政府资金的目标迄今尚未实现。本研究定量地考察了发展活动产生的资金(即中央政府转移资金和地区原始收入)的影响如何产生效益,或者地方政府支出的预算(即资本支出)的实现是否能为社区产生一定的价值或效益,以便在本研究中可以通过人类发展指数工具进行描述。本研究采用的抽样技术是有目的抽样。本研究使用的数据为从中央统计局和国家财政平衡总局获得的二手数据。研究方法采用固定效应模型(Fixed Effect Model, FEM)面板数据回归,收集的数据为横断面数据,即印度尼西亚2012年至2020年的414个区/市为时间序列数据。结果表明:(1)DTPP对HDI有显著的正向影响;(2) PAD对HDI有正向显著影响;(3)通过资本支出中介,DTPP对HDI具有显著负向影响;(4)通过资本支出的中介作用,PAD对HDI具有显著的正向影响。
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Effect of Fund Transfer, Revenue on Development Index as Moderation Variables
One of the instruments to measure the level of success of a country in carrying out development is the human development index calculation approach. In essence, development is a change towards better conditions so that as a result of development activities it will have implications for the emergence of a budget and ultimately money is needed to realize development activities. During the twenty-four years of implementing fiscal decentralization in Indonesia, the number of transfers to the regions has increased significantly. However, efforts to increase regional revenues are often neglected, so that the goal of fiscal decentralization towards self-sufficient regional government funding has not been achieved to date. This study examines quantitatively how the influence of money arising from development activities, namely Central Government Transfer Funds and Regional Original Revenues, can generate benefits or whether the realization of the budget spent by local governments, namely Capital Expenditures, can generate a certain value or benefit for the community, so that in this study can be described through the human development index instrument. The sampling technique used in this study was purposive sampling. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Directorate General of State Financial Balance. The research method used is panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM), where the data collected is cross-sectional data, namely 414 districts/cities in Indonesia for the period 2012 to 2020 which are time series data. The results obtained show that: (1) DTPP has a positive and significant effect on HDI; (2) PAD has a positive and significant effect on HDI; (3) Through capital expenditure mediation, DTPP has a negative and significant effect on HDI; and (4) Through the mediation of capital expenditure, PAD has a positive and significant effect on HDI..
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