“拯救与利润”:解构清洁技术泡沫

V. Giorgis, Tobias Huber, D. Sornette
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引用次数: 2

摘要

从2004年到2008年,太阳能、生物燃料、电池和其他可再生能源等清洁技术领域形成了泡沫。在本文中,我们通过社会泡沫假说的视角来分析清洁技术泡沫,该假说认为,热心支持者之间的强烈社会互动编织了一个强化反馈的网络,从而导致参与者的广泛认可和非凡承诺。我们对清洁技术泡沫的发展、历史以及风险资本和政府资助在催化泡沫中的作用进行了详细的综合分析。特别是,我们剖析了助长泡沫的潜在叙事。由于泡沫在加速新兴技术发展和技术创新扩散的过程中是必不可少的,我们提出证据表明,清洁技术泡沫构成了创新加速过程的一个例子。
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“Salvation and Profit”: Deconstructing the Clean-Tech Bubble
From 2004 to 2008, a bubble formed in clean technologies, such as solar, biofuels, batteries, and other renewable energy sources. In this paper, we analyze this clean-tech bubble through the lens of the Social Bubble Hypothesis, which holds that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters weave a network of reinforcing feedbacks that lead to widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment by those involved. We present a detailed synthesis of the development of the clean-tech bubble, its history, and the role of venture capital and government funding in catalyzing it. In particular, we dissect the underlying narrative that was fueling the bubble. As bubbles can be essential in the process of accelerating the development of emerging technologies and diffusion of technological innovations, we present evidence that the clean-tech bubble constituted an example of an innovation-accelerating process.
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