使用威布尔和贝塔分布的时相飞机研发

Gregory Brown, E. White, J. Ritschel, Michael J. Seibel
{"title":"使用威布尔和贝塔分布的时相飞机研发","authors":"Gregory Brown, E. White, J. Ritschel, Michael J. Seibel","doi":"10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096219","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Early research on time phasing primarily focuses on the theoretical foundation for applying the cumulative distribution function, or S-curve, to model the distribution of development expenditures. Minimal methodology prior to 2002 provides for estimating the S-curve’s parameter values. Brown et al. (2002) resolved this shortcoming through regression analysis, but their methodology is not specific to aircraft and does not consider aircraft-specific variables, such as first flight. Using a sample of 26 Department of Defense aircraft programs, we build upon Brown et al.’s work by examining whether a model driven by aircraft-specific variables can more accurately predict budget requirements. As a baseline, we compare our model to the commonly cited 60/40 “rule of thumb,” which assumes 60% expenditures at 50% schedule. We discover that our developed Weibull model explains 74.6% of total variation in annual budget, improving the estimation of budgets by 6.5%, on average, over the baseline 60/40 model.","PeriodicalId":390877,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2015-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Time Phasing Aircraft R&D Using the Weibull and Beta Distributions\",\"authors\":\"Gregory Brown, E. White, J. Ritschel, Michael J. Seibel\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096219\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Early research on time phasing primarily focuses on the theoretical foundation for applying the cumulative distribution function, or S-curve, to model the distribution of development expenditures. Minimal methodology prior to 2002 provides for estimating the S-curve’s parameter values. Brown et al. (2002) resolved this shortcoming through regression analysis, but their methodology is not specific to aircraft and does not consider aircraft-specific variables, such as first flight. Using a sample of 26 Department of Defense aircraft programs, we build upon Brown et al.’s work by examining whether a model driven by aircraft-specific variables can more accurately predict budget requirements. As a baseline, we compare our model to the commonly cited 60/40 “rule of thumb,” which assumes 60% expenditures at 50% schedule. We discover that our developed Weibull model explains 74.6% of total variation in annual budget, improving the estimation of budgets by 6.5%, on average, over the baseline 60/40 model.\",\"PeriodicalId\":390877,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics\",\"volume\":\"42 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2015-09-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096219\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096219","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7

摘要

早期对时间相位的研究主要集中在应用累积分布函数或s曲线来模拟发展支出分布的理论基础上。2002年以前的最小方法提供了估计s曲线参数值的方法。Brown等人(2002)通过回归分析解决了这一缺点,但他们的方法不是针对飞机的,也没有考虑飞机特定的变量,比如首次飞行。使用26架国防部飞机项目的样本,我们通过检查由飞机特定变量驱动的模型是否可以更准确地预测预算需求,从而建立Brown等人的工作。作为基线,我们将我们的模型与通常引用的60/40“经验法则”进行比较,该法则假设60%的支出在50%的时间表上。我们发现,我们开发的威布尔模型解释了年度预算总变化的74.6%,比基线60/40模型平均提高了6.5%的预算估计。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Time Phasing Aircraft R&D Using the Weibull and Beta Distributions
Early research on time phasing primarily focuses on the theoretical foundation for applying the cumulative distribution function, or S-curve, to model the distribution of development expenditures. Minimal methodology prior to 2002 provides for estimating the S-curve’s parameter values. Brown et al. (2002) resolved this shortcoming through regression analysis, but their methodology is not specific to aircraft and does not consider aircraft-specific variables, such as first flight. Using a sample of 26 Department of Defense aircraft programs, we build upon Brown et al.’s work by examining whether a model driven by aircraft-specific variables can more accurately predict budget requirements. As a baseline, we compare our model to the commonly cited 60/40 “rule of thumb,” which assumes 60% expenditures at 50% schedule. We discover that our developed Weibull model explains 74.6% of total variation in annual budget, improving the estimation of budgets by 6.5%, on average, over the baseline 60/40 model.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊最新文献
Editorial Board EOV Multiproduct Cost-Volume-Profit Model: A Resource Reallocation Approach for Decision Making Dynamics of New Building Construction Costs: Implications for Forecasting Escalation Allowances Balancing Expert Opinion and Historical Data: The Case of Baseball Umpires Using Robust Statistical Methodology to Evaluate the Cost Performance of Project Delivery Systems: A Case Study of Horizontal Construction
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1