Long-term Wind Power Development in Morocco: Optimality Assessment using Bottom-up Modeling

Since 2010, Morocco has been pursuing an energy strategy focused mainly on increasing the share of renewable sources in the energy mix, promoting energy efficiency, and boosting regional trade. This energy strategy plans to increase the share of renewable electricity to 42 % of installed capacity in 2020 and more than 52% in 2030. In this study, it is assumed that Morocco will continue this development of the share of renewable energies, setting new targets for 2040 and 2050, respectively, of 62% and 72%. Thus, a bottom-up linear optimization model is proposed to study the demand, production, and installed capacity of electrical energy in 2050 in Morocco. The aim is to identify the optimal trajectory for the development of the installed capacity of wind energy and its share in the electricity mix at this horizon. For this purpose, three Scenarios of wind energy development are considered. For each of these Scenarios, the impact on the electricity mix is assessed in terms of discounted global costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The results show Morocco is able to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector by more than 85% compared to their current projected levels. It can also be concluded that wind energy is a more mature technology than solar photovoltaic and that natural gas production capacity should be greatly increased.