过渡时期面板调查的建模模式效应

P. Biemer, K. Harris, Dan Liao, B. Burke, C. Halpern
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引用次数: 3

摘要

资金的减少和数据收集成本的增加要求美国国家青少年到成人健康纵向研究(Add Health)的第五波放弃了面对面访谈的传统方法,采用了一种更具成本效益的方法。该方法在数据收集的第一阶段使用邮件/网络模式,并在第二阶段对随机抽样的非受访者进行面对面访谈。此外,为了便于模式的比较,选取一个小的随机子样本作为对照,进行传统的面对面访谈。根据对调查数据的分析结果,我们表明,对重新设计工作导致的数据质量降低的担忧是没有根据的。在几个重要方面,新的两相混合模式设计优于传统设计,具有更高的测量精度,改进了加权调整以减轻非响应偏差的风险,减少了残余(或调整后)非响应偏差,并大大降低了估计的总均方误差。这个好消息在很大程度上是出乎意料的,因为大量文献表明,向混合模式过渡可能会对数据质量产生不利影响。坏消息是,在比较波V和先前的波估计时,这种转换伴随着模式效应的高风险。分析结果表明,在大约60%的时间里,纵向变化估计可能出现显著差异,这纯粹是重新设计的产物。这就引出了一个问题:那么,在模式效应存在的情况下,数据分析师应该如何解释纵向分析中的重要发现?本章给出了分析结果,并试图解决这个问题。
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Modelling Mode Effects for a Panel Survey in Transition
Funding reductions combined with increasing data-collection costs required that Wave V of the USA’s National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) abandon its traditional approach of in-person interviewing and adopt a more cost-effective method. This approach used the mail/web mode in Phase 1 of data collection and in-person interviewing for a random sample of nonrespondents in Phase 2. In addition, to facilitate the comparison of modes, a small random subsample served as the control and received the traditional in-person interview. We show that concerns about reduced data quality as a result of the redesign effort were unfounded based on findings from an analysis of the survey data. In several important respects, the new two-phase, mixed-mode design outperformed the traditional design with greater measurement accuracy, improved weighting adjustments for mitigating the risk of nonresponse bias, reduced residual (or post-adjustment) nonresponse bias, and substantially reduced total-mean-squared error of the estimates. This good news was largely unexpected based upon the preponderance of literature suggesting data quality could be adversely affected by the transition to a mixed mode. The bad news is that the transition comes with a high risk of mode effects for comparing Wave V and prior wave estimates. Analytical results suggest that significant differences can occur in longitudinal change estimates about 60 % of the time purely as an artifact of the redesign. This begs the question: how, then, should a data analyst interpret significant findings in a longitudinal analysis in the presence of mode effects? This chapter presents the analytical results and attempts to address this question.
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