人为活动条件下河流径流时空变化特征

Z. Mustafayev, A. Kozykeyeva, L. M. Ryskulbekova
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摘要

为解决伊犁河流域集水区水资源可持续管理问题,研究考虑人类活动强度不断增强的流域年平均排水量动态变化是迫切需要的。同时,流域自然条件的积分指标是流域年平均排水量,该参数的重要性在于,它可以被认为是对流域任何变化响应的函数。为此,在时空尺度上对伊犁河流域集水区年平均径流量变化进行分析,采用线性趋势评价和作图,采用多元回归分析方法,并在Microsoft Excel软件基础上对时间序列进行处理。对伊犁河流域集水区年平均径流量的时空变化分析表明,在人为因素和自然因素的影响下,所有研究的水文站均呈现出水文动态变化的总体格局,但其变化具有显著的年际变化特征。
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SPATIAL-TIME VARIABILITY OF THE ILE RIVER RUNOFF UNDER CONDITIONS OF ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITY
To solve the problems of sustainable management of water resources in the catchment area of the Ili River basin, it is becoming demanded to study the dynamics of the average annual water discharge, taking into account anthropogenic activities, since their intensity is constantly growing. At the same time, the integral indicator of natural conditions in the catchment is the average annual water discharge of river basins, and the importance of this parameter lies in the fact that they can be considered as a function of the response to any changes in the catchment. In this regard, the analysis of changes in the average annual water discharge of the Ili River basin's catchment area was carried out on a spatio-temporal scale, where linear trends were used to assess and plot graphs, the method of multiple regression analysis and processing of time series were carried out on the basis of Microsoft Excel. Analysis of the dynamics of the average annual water discharge in the Ili River basin's catchment area on a spatio-temporal scale showed that, despite significant variability over the years, all studied hydrological stations are characterized by general patterns of changes in the hydrological regime under the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors.
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