A Semi-Aggregate Model for Social Expenditure Projections

This report describes the semi-aggregate model (SAM) developed to deliver aggregate projections of social protection expenditures as well as semi-aggregate projections of income sources by age class and gender for a number of European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and United Kingdom) over the horizon 2005 - 2050. The partial equilibrium stance adopted allows both a greater flexibility in the choice of countries and in the building of scenarios, while at the same time offering an easier understanding of the model’s inner mechanisms with respect to general equilibrium modelling. Results for aggregate projections are presented, including various sensitivity scenarios devoted at analysing the role of theoretical replacement rates and employment rates – such as the one necessary to fulfil the Lisbon targets – on public pensions expenditures.