多灾害环境下城市淹没泥石流防治对策

Yeon-Joong Kim, Kohji Tanaka, H. Nakashima, E. Nakakita
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引用次数: 2

摘要

自然灾害可以在任何时间、任何地点毫无预兆地发生。此外,这些灾害可能发生在高低山区之间的多个地点,同时在城市地区发生暴雨引起的洪水。然而,预测强降雨变得越来越困难,而且由于气候变化,强降雨在未来可能会变得更加频繁。为了更有效地减少这些迫在眉睫的灾害,有必要立即使用综合灾害模型调查造成破坏的原因,并充分预测降雨量。本研究的主要目的是通过深度-面积-持续时间分析对最大预报降雨量进行评价,对实际流域城市淹没过程中的泥石流进行分析,并利用二维城市淹没模型估计二维泥石流的风险评价指标。最后,提出建立疏散时间场景,并利用地理信息系统创建两种灾害相结合的多灾种风险和疏散路线图。利用深度-面积-持续时间分析,估计日本小野台风相关降水的峰值降水量为135mm/hr,最大总降雨量为544mm。
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Debris Flow Prevention Countermeasures with Urban Inundation in a Multihazard-Environment
Natural disasters can strike without notice at any time, anywhere. Also these disasters can occur in multiple locations between high and low mountainous areas simultaneously with flooding in urban areas caused by heavy rainfall. However, it is becoming more and more difficult to predict heavy rainfall, and intensive rainfall could become more frequent in the future due to climate change. In order to reduce these impending disasters more effectively, it is necessary to investigate what causes the damage with an integrated model of disasters at once, and to adequately predict rainfall. The main objectives of this study are to evaluate the maximum forecast rainfall by a depth-area-duration analysis, to analyses the debris flow during urban inundation in a real basin, and to estimate the risk evaluation index according to two-dimensional debris flow with two-dimensional urban inundation models. Finally, the establishment of an evacuation time scenario is proposed, and multihazard risk and evacuation route maps combining both disasters are created using a geographic information system. The peak precipitation is estimated at 135mm/hr of torrential rainfall, and the maximum total rainfall is estimated at 544mm of typhoon-related rainfall at Ono, Japan, using depth-area-duration analysis.
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