意大利具有挑战性的能源政策的情景分析

F. Lanati, A. Gelmini, M. Borgarello
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文旨在分析意大利发电组合的可能演变。为了关注意大利能源政策的长期目标是“25-25-50”的电力发电组合(25%的可再生能源,25%的核能和50%的化石燃料),对2030年的情景进行了分析。本情景分析使用意大利电力系统的多区域MATISSE模型(基于Markal-TIMES)进行。本文将根据欧盟政策的三大“支柱”,展示研究结果,展示实现核能和可再生能源(RES)发展目标如何影响化石燃料依赖(供应安全)、生产成本(竞争力)和二氧化碳排放(可持续性)。
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A scenario analysis for a challenging energy policy in Italy
The paper aims at analyzing a possible evolution of the Italian power generation mix. A scenario, ranging to 2030, has been analyzed in order to focus on the Italian energy policy whose long-term objective is a “25-25-50” electric energy generation mix (25% renewable sources, 25% nuclear and 50% fossil fuels). This scenario analysis has been carried out using the multi-regional model MATISSE (Markal-TIMES based) of the Italian power system. In this paper, the results of the study will be presented, showing, in line with the three “pillars” of the EU policy, how reaching the nuclear and renewable (RES) development targets affects fossil fuel dependency (security of supply), production costs (competitiveness) and CO2 emissions (sustainability).
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