利率作为通货膨胀框架目标制调控工具的滚雪球效应

S. Sriyono
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引用次数: 0

摘要

货币危机后,政府通过使用通货膨胀目标制框架的新范式来改变其货币政策策略。这一新的范式已经在1999年第23号法律和2004年第3号法律中得到证实,作为通货膨胀目标制框架在印度尼西亚应用的基础。本研究的目的是确定利率是否只影响通货膨胀,甚至对其他货币变量产生更大的影响。了解影响是非常重要的,通过了解影响可以避免不必要的情况,研究数据收集自1970年至2013年,假设检验使用计量经济模型。计量经济模型的主要优点在于能够处理相互依赖关系(interdependence)。除此之外,计量经济模型是理解经济系统运作的宝贵工具,因此可以使用多元回归来测试和评估政策选择和假设检验。研究结果表明,利率不仅是控制通货膨胀目标制框架的工具,而且会引起其他货币变量的滚雪球效应,从而进一步强化通货膨胀目标制框架的机制
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Snowball Effect of Interest Rate as a Control Instrument On Inflation Framework Targetingin Indonesia
Afterthe monetary crisisthe government changes its monetary policy strategyby using a new paradigm that Inflation Targeting framework. This new paradigm has been confirmed in Law No.23 of 1999and UUNo3 of 2004as the basis forthe application of Inflation Targeting Framework inIndonesia The purpose ofthis studywas to determine whether interest rates only impact on inflation or even cause greater impact on other monetary variables. It is very important to knowthe impact,by knowing the impact it can avoid unwanted conditions Data of research is collected since 1970 to 2013, hypothesis testing is used econometric models. The main advantages of econometric models for being able to handle the mutual dependence (interdependence). Beside that econometric model is an invaluable tool for understanding the workings of the economic system and  so to test and evaluate policy alternatives andhypothesis testing using multiple regression. The result of this study showed that this study indicate the interest rate turns out not only as an instrument of control of Inflation Targeting Framework but cause a snowball effecton other monetary variables that further strengthen themechanismonInflationTargetingFramework
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