内部移民作为区域解体的驱动力:土耳其nut -2区域的实证分析

Ayfer Özyılmaz, Y. Bayraktar
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摘要

国内移徙是指由于经济、政治或社会原因在一国境内的人口流动,它被视为区域不平衡的原因和结果。在这个框架内,不断增加的国内移徙对发达区域和不发达区域的影响可能因区域间不同的社会文化和经济条件而有所不同。在不同发展阶段的地区,人口迁移对工资、生产、消费、人力资本水平、创业迁移、失业和家庭收入等参数的影响程度直接相关。本研究使用自举分位数回归方法分析了2008-2019年土耳其nut -2地区内部移民对区域失衡的影响。根据分析结果,国内移民促进了所有nut -2地区的经济增长,但这种影响在高收入水平地区更为强烈。在这种情况下,随着一个地区收入水平的提高,净移民对经济增长的影响也会增加。当考虑从低收入地区到高收入地区的迁移方向时,发现内部迁移增加了土耳其的区域间解体。
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Internal Migrations as a Driving Force of Regional Disintegration: An Empirical Analysis of NUTS-2 Regions in Turkey
Internal migrations, which involve population movements within the borders of a country for economic, political or social reasons, is seen as both a cause and a result of regional imbalances. In this framework, the effect increasing internal migrations have on developed and underdeveloped regions may differ through the effect of the different socio-cultural and economic conditions between regions. The aspect of imbalance is directly related to the extent to which migration affects parameters such as wage, production, consumption, human capital levels, entrepreneurial migration, unemployment, and household income in regions with different stages of development. This study analyzes the effect internal migration has on regional imbalances in Turkey’s NUTS-2 regions during 2008-2019 using the bootstrap quantile regression method. According to the analysis findings, internal migration increases growth in all NUTS-2 regions, but this effect is stronger at higher income levels. In this context, as a region’s income levels increase, the effect of net migration on growth also increases. When considering the migration direction to be from low-income regions to high-income regions, internal migration has been found to increase interregional disintegration in Turkey.
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