破产预测的数据挖掘:在越南的实验

D. Hung, V. T. T. Binh
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引用次数: 2

摘要

——在世界经济史上,一些大公司的破产引发了全球性的金融危机。本研究旨在假设越南股市上市公司破产预测模型。该研究使用了数据挖掘中六种流行的算法来预测破产风险,数据收集自2009年至2020年期间的4693项观察数据。研究结果表明,Logistic算法、人工神经网络、决策树对破产的预测准确率达到98%,具有较高的预测水平。研究确定了影响企业破产预测的三个最重要的指标:存货周转率、负债权益比和负债率。该研究显示了避免破产可能性的10个指标的阈值。这些结果表明,该模型可以在实践中应用,以减少越南市场的企业和投资者的风险。
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Data Mining for Bankruptcy Prediction: An Experiment in Vietnam
— In the history of the world economy, the bank-ruptcy of some large companies has caused global financial crises. The study aimed to postulate a model of bankruptcy prediction for listed companies on Vietnam's stock market. The research used six popular algorithms in data mining to predict bankruptcy risk with data collected from 4693 observations in the period 2009-2020. The research results showed that Logistic algorithms, Artificial Neural Network, Decision Tree have a high level of predicting bankruptcy with an accuracy of 98%. The study identified the three most important indicators: inventory turnover ratio, debt to equity ratio, and debt ratio that affect the corporate bankruptcy prediction. The study showed the threshold points of 10-indicators to avoid bankruptcy likelihood. These results recommended that the model could be applied in practice to reduce risks for businesses and investors in the Vietnamese market.
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