货币联盟中的通胀分歧和公共赤字

J. Creel, J. L. Cacheux
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引用次数: 5

摘要

我们使用B-V(2002)的修正版模型,重新考虑货币联盟中国内公共债务与平均通胀率和国内通胀率之间的联系。因此,有可能表明,通胀动态与公共财政之间的因果关系可能从前者转向后者。因此,我们能够解决欧元区内部通胀率持续分歧的问题。我们还证明,《稳定与增长公约》(Stability and Growth Pact)中定义的同质财政规则并不合适,甚至可能适得其反。鉴于欧盟正处于向中东欧国家扩大的前夕,这一结论更加正确:我们的研究结果表明,对中东欧国家实施同质化的财政规则可能会造成破坏。
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Inflation divergence and public deficits in a monetary union
We reconsider the link between domestic public debts and average and domestic inflation rates in a monetary union, using a modified version of a model by B-V (2002). It is thus possible to show that the causation between the inflation dynamics and the public finances might go from the former to the latter. We are thus able to tackle the issue of persistently divergent inflation rates within the euro area. We also demonstrate that the homogeneous fiscal rules defined in the Stability and Growth Pact are ill-suited and might even be counterproductive. This conclusion is all the more true as the EU is on the eve of enlargement towards the CEECs: our results show that imposing homogeneous fiscal rules to the CEECs may prove disruptive.
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