{"title":"面对模型的不确定性,生命周期投资者应该在多大程度上调整自己的行为?","authors":"Sally Shen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2475803","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"I investigate a dynamic life-cycle strategic asset allocation and consumption problem under model uncertainty, where both inflation rate and income growth rate are assumed to be estimated with errors. I present a feasible boundary for the uncertainty aversion parameter, which measures the investor's preference for robustness using econometric theory. I derive a closed-form solution for a robust investor characterized by min-max utility preference to insure against the worst case scenario. Robustness dramatically increases the demand for the long-term bonds when the instantaneous inflation rate is low.","PeriodicalId":151802,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)","volume":"87 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2014-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How Much Should Life-Cycle Investors Adapt their Behavior when Confronted with Model Uncertainty?\",\"authors\":\"Sally Shen\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.2475803\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"I investigate a dynamic life-cycle strategic asset allocation and consumption problem under model uncertainty, where both inflation rate and income growth rate are assumed to be estimated with errors. I present a feasible boundary for the uncertainty aversion parameter, which measures the investor's preference for robustness using econometric theory. I derive a closed-form solution for a robust investor characterized by min-max utility preference to insure against the worst case scenario. Robustness dramatically increases the demand for the long-term bonds when the instantaneous inflation rate is low.\",\"PeriodicalId\":151802,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)\",\"volume\":\"87 2 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2014-08-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2475803\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Life Cycle Models (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2475803","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
How Much Should Life-Cycle Investors Adapt their Behavior when Confronted with Model Uncertainty?
I investigate a dynamic life-cycle strategic asset allocation and consumption problem under model uncertainty, where both inflation rate and income growth rate are assumed to be estimated with errors. I present a feasible boundary for the uncertainty aversion parameter, which measures the investor's preference for robustness using econometric theory. I derive a closed-form solution for a robust investor characterized by min-max utility preference to insure against the worst case scenario. Robustness dramatically increases the demand for the long-term bonds when the instantaneous inflation rate is low.