Testing the effect of local macroeconomic indicators and global risk factors on the Turkish participation stock market: Evidence from quantile regression approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of local macroeconomic indicators and global risk factors on the participation index in the Turkish stock market from May 2011 to April 2021. Using the quantile regression approach, we detect the impact of local macroeconomic indicators and global risk factors across different market conditions: bull, bear, and normal. The empirical results demonstrate that, among local macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy-related indicators, Consumer Price Index (CPI)(Slope of Government Bond [SGB]), merely influence participation 30 index (KAT30) return in bearish market (bullish market); however, credit default swap negatively affects KAT30 return across all quantiles. When it comes to global risk factors, results show that KAT30 return is negatively affected by the implied volatility index across all quantiles except Q0.75 and Q0.95. This means that the implied volatility index impact on KAT30 return is stronger during the bearish market. Yet, Oil Volatility Index (OVX) and Morgan Stanley Country Index (MSCI) positively impact the index return across upper quantiles. göstergelerin