巴西的金融化、增长和投资

L. D. Paula, T. Meyer
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摘要

有大量文献将金融化过程与投资决策联系起来。一般来说,金融化对生产性投资产生负面影响的主要渠道有两个:(i)公司在提供更大的短期回报而不是生产性投资时,将可用的国内资金用于金融资产;(2)股东要求公司管理者获得更大的短期回报和股息支付的压力。然而,与巴西金融化和投资相关的研究很少,尽管一些研究表明巴西经济具有金融化经济的特征(Bruno et al., 2015)。在过去几年中,巴西经济的特点是在1995年至2017年期间积累率较低,约占GDP的15%至21.5%。它的行为遵循了经济周期,要么提高了某些需求组成部分(如家庭消费)的增长,要么促成了2014年的经济放缓。这种投资的突然逆转可能在某种程度上与巴西经济的金融化过程有关,因为公司可能采用基于股东价值取向的战略,这意味着它们积累的利润越来越少,无法再投资于实际的生产活动,并从金融收入中获得更多的盈利能力。根据Miranda(2013),有强有力的证据表明,巴西公司可以被认为是金融化的,因为一种更接近盎格鲁-撒克逊模式的治理,寻求短期结果和收敛,以最大化股东价值。本章旨在分析自雷亚尔计划实施以来,即1995-2017年期间,巴西金融化与投资之间的关系。
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Financialisation, growth and investment in Brazil
There is an extensive literature relating the process of financialisation with investment decisions. In general, there are two main channels in which financialisation affect negatively productive investment: (i) firms applying available domestic funds in financial assets when they offer larger short-term returns instead of productive investments; (ii) pressure exerted by the shareholders on the companies’ managers in obtaining greater short-term returns and dividends payments. However, there are few studies related to financialisation and investment in Brazil, although some studies show that the Brazilian economy has characteristics of a financialised economy (Bruno et al., 2015). During the last years, the Brazilian economy has been characterized by having a low rate of accumulation about 15% to 21.5% of GDP in the period 1995-2017. Its behaviour followed the economic cycle, either by increasing the growth of some components of demand (such as household consumption), or contributing to the economic slowdown as of 2014. This abrupt reversal of the investment can be related somehow to the process of financialisation of the Brazilian economy, since firms may be adopting strategies based on the shareholder value orientation, in the meaning that they are accumulating fewer profits to reinvest in their real productive activities and obtaining more profitability derived from financial income. According to Miranda (2013), there are strong evidences that the Brazilian companies can be considered financialised, due to a type of governance closer to the Anglo-Saxon model that seeks short-term results and convergence to the maximization of shareholder value. This chapter aims to analyse the relationship between financialisation and investment in Brazil since the implementation of the Real Plan, i.e. in 1995-2017 period,
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