Lifecycle perspective on uncertainty and value robustness in the offshore drilling industry

Drilling systems require large investments while contributing strongly to national and international economies. During their long lifecycles they have various and varying stakeholders with different goals while their utilization is also highly dependent on political and economic developments. The offshore drilling vessels, especially floaters, are also exposed to environmental influences. This social, technical and environmental complexity and the limits in planning operations strategically during design lead to a high level of uncertainty and limited uncertainty handling. This brings along design changes across the entire lifecycle making upgrades usually very expensive and suboptimal, especially after the deployment of drilling systems. This paper explains the special characteristics of the drilling industry discussing both the reasons for the high level of uncertainty and the passiveness for taking actions. Today's limits in maintaining value delivery of drilling systems across the lifecycle are demonstrated and means of changeability are suggested in order to increase this value robustness. This paper concludes by discussing the required framework for this paradigm shift and prevalent tendencies in the industry in this direction.