尼泊尔中部阿格拉科拉流域自然山坡滑坡灾害定量预测模型

P. Thapa, T. Esaki
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引用次数: 10

摘要

以1993年7月19-21日尼泊尔中部极端天气事件引发大量滑坡的阿格拉-科拉流域为研究对象,在空间上整合地质地貌变量的影响,建立滑坡灾害预测模型。运用多变量分析的定量技术,成功地将该地区滑坡的要素或观测结果划分为不同的危害等级。对预测的滑坡危险性进行了验证,建立了预测的空间相关性。基于gis的滑坡灾害预测模型具有客观性和可重复性,提高了天然边坡滑坡灾害作图水平。
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GIS-based quantitative landslide hazard prediction modelling in natural hillslope, Agra Khola watershed, central Nepal
The influence of geological and geomorphological variables were spatially integrated to develop landslide hazard prediction model in the Agra Khola watershed of central Nepal where a large number of landslides triggered off due to extreme weather event of July 19–21, 1993. A quantitative technique of multivariate analysis was performed to predict elements or observations of landslides successfully into different hazard levels in the area. The predicted landslide hazard was validated and spatially relevancy of the prediction is established. The GIS-based prediction model possessed objectivity and reproducibility, and also improved the landslide hazard mapping in the natural hillslope.
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