基于DR- CVaR的可再生能源电力组合方法

Feifei Zhao, Xingning Han, Qinxin Huang, Yiqing Xu, Zhuyi Peng
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摘要

电力市场的运行存在着很大的不确定性,因此电力市场的稳定运行至关重要。考虑多能源市场中电价概率分布的不确定性,在保证满足分配鲁棒性条件风险价值约束的前提下,建立了最优购电组合方法。在该框架下,将实时电力市场、日前电力市场和中长期合同市场的购电问题转化为半确定规划问题。数值分析表明了所提模型的有效性,为供电企业在考虑风险的情况下确定最优采购策略,特别是在以可再生能源为主导的具有强不确定性的新型电力系统中提供了新的思路。
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A Power Portfolio Method using DR- CVaR in Renewable Power Systems
A great uncertainty exists in the operation of power market, but the stable operation of the market is of extreme importantance. Considering the uncertainty of probability distribution of electricity price in multi-energy markets as well as the premise of guaranteeing distributional robust conditional value-at-risk constraint is satisfied, this paper establishes an optimal power purchasing portfolio method. In the proposed framework, power purchasing in real-time electricity market, day-ahead electricity market, and mid-long term contract market is transformed into a semi-definite programming problem. The numerical analysis shows the efficiency of the proposed model, which paves a new way for power supply companies to determine the optimal purchasing strategies considering the risk, especially in the new type power system with strong uncertainty dominated by renewable energy.
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