Factors Affecting Life Expectancy in East Java: Predictions with A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

This study predicts the factors that influence life expectancy in East Java, Indonesia. In particular, this study compares the prediction results between the linear regression model and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The study used a 2015 data set from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of the province of East Java.The results of data exploration show that the life expectancy in East Java is 70.68 years, the Bondowoso regency is the region with the lowest life expectancy at 65.73 years and the city of Surabaya is the area with the highest life expectancy value in East Java, which is 73.85 years.The results of the inference study indicate that the factors that are expected to affect life expectancy in East Java are the infant mortality rate and the illiteracy rate of the population aged 10 and over.The results of the comparison between the BMA and the regression show that the BMA is a better model for predicting the factors that affect life expectancy in East Java than the regression model because the BMA model can estimate the parameters more efficiently by estimating the model parameters based on the standard error value.