关于阿富汗新的经济和社会政治现实对经济和战略风险管理的全球影响

P. Pal, S. Khoury
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摘要

我们在这里考察阿富汗作为一个伊斯兰酋长国的新经济和社会政治现实的全球影响。这里所涉及的风险管理,与其说是管理一个简单的经济和金融风险,不如说是必须检查世界其他地区是否应该仅仅关注当前局势如何演变,或者探索任何可能帮助管理全球秩序本身风险的可能性。因此,有三个事实很明显。其一,新兴的塔利班政权由普什图人主导,但普什图民族实际上横跨阿富汗和巴基斯坦,尤其是后者现在处于经济崩溃的状态。请注意,普什图人是多民族阿富汗的主要民族语言群体,但超过三分之二的普什图人实际上生活在邻国巴基斯坦,大多数普什图人从未接受过一个多世纪前英国对他们土地的分割。第二,尽管塔利班在1996年至2001年期间对阿富汗进行了所有的抗议,但他们对世界和谐、和平与繁荣最显著的贡献是美国臭名昭著的(尽管并非自愿的)9/11爆炸事件,以及公元11世纪对佛祖的蓄意破坏
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On the global implications of Afghanistan's new economic and socio-political realities for economic and strategic risk management
We examine here the global implications of Afghanistan's new economic and socio-political realities as an Islamic emirate. The risk management involved here not as much one of managing a simple economic and financial risk as of having to examine whether the rest of the world should merely watch how the current situation evolves there or explore the possibilities of whatever can be done to help manage the risk to the global order itself. As such, three facts readily stand out. One, the emerging Taliban regime is Pashtun dominated but the Pashtun nation actually straddles Afghanistan as well as Pakistan, particularly as the latter is now in a economically tattered state. Note that Pashtuns are the dominant ethnolinguistic group in multi-ethnic Afghanistan but over two-thirds of Pushtuns actually live in the neighboring Pakistan and most of the Pushtoons have never accepted this Britishimposed division of their land over a century ago. Two, despite all their protestations, the last time the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, during the 1996-2001 period, their most notable contributions to the world's harmony, peace and prosperity were the infamous, albeit involuntary, 9/11 bombings in the US, the deliberate destruction of 11th century AD Buddha SCIREA Journal of Economics http://www.scirea.org/journal/Economics
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