MODELING THE EFFECTS OF LAND USE TRANSFORMATION USING ECOSYSTEM SERVICE ASSESSMENT

The study analyzes the possibilities of using cost estimates of ecosystem services to assess the effects of transformations in land use. The consequences of transformations were assessed by comparing the value of basic ecosystem services for different patterns of the land use structure, taking into account the fact that the volume of ecosystem services provided is limited by the ecosystem sustainability limits. To estimate ecosystem services, the methodology developed by the author was used. It is based on the indicators of agricultural land productivity and their value terms. The assessment was carried out for the Zarinsky district of Altai Krai, located at the junction of the West Siberian and Altai-Sayan physicogeographical countries. The study has revealed that the greatest value of basic ecosystem services in the region with agricultural specialization can be achieved by optimizing the agricultural load – reducing the share of arable land and increasing the share of forage land in the total area. It is proposed to implement this by involving plots of fallow lands in circulation: some of the plots are proposed to be used for reforestation, while others – for haying and grazing. This will balance the need to maximize agricultural production, while not reducing the sustainability of the ecosystems.