亚当斯条件作用与似然比传递介导推理

J. Bergstra
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引用次数: 4

摘要

贝叶斯推理在法律环境中的应用是关于信念转移的,涉及多个代理和通信协议。法医专家(FE)可以首先向事实验证者(TOF)传达其相对于FE的信念状态的某个似然比的值,该似然比由FE的命题空间上的概率函数表示。随后,FE传达其最近获得的确认,即某个证据命题为真。然后TOF进行似然比转移介导推理,从而修正自己的信念状态。在可能性转移中介推理中涉及的逻辑原则在一个设置中进行了讨论,其中概率算法是在草地中完成的,并以亚当斯条件作用为中心。
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Adams Conditioning and Likelihood Ratio Transfer Mediated Inference
Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain likelihood ratio with respect to FE's belief state as represented by a probability function on FE's proposition space. Subsequently FE communicates its recently acquired confirmation that a certain evidence proposition is true. Then TOF performs likelihood ratio transfer mediated reasoning thereby revising their own belief state. The logical principles involved in likelihood transfer mediated reasoning are discussed in a setting where probabilistic arithmetic is done within a meadow, and with Adams conditioning placed in a central role.
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