Futures Study of Crises due to a Possible Earthquake in Tehran, Iran: Information Infrastructure Vulnerability and Possibility of Occurrence of Efficacy and Influence Crises

INTRODUCTION: The density of the country’s information infrastructure in Tehran, Iran, and the high vulnerability of these infrastructures raise the question of what effects the demolition of these infrastructures would have. Natural disaster management is entirely dependent on the capacity and efficiency of the central government in Iran and the government also mobilizes and organizes crisis management and resources through an almost monopoly and exclusively controlled information system. Therefore, the present study was accomplished to examine some of the likely impacts and consequences of an earthquake in Tehran from a prospective perspective. METHODS: Using documentary data and the implementation of a two-round expert panel, it was examined whether the demolition of information infrastructures due to a potential earthquake in Tehran would impose efficacy and influence crises on the government. In this way, basic study information was collected using library documents and the futurological aspects of the problem, i.e. the probability of a severe earthquake, destruction of media infrastructure, and the subsequent possible crises were investigated using the Expert panel method. FINDINGS: Taking into account the tectonic potentials and historical backgrounds, the occurrence of a major earthquake with magnitude greater than 7 is highly probable in Tehran. Given the density of information structures, installations, and trusted organizations in vulnerable areas, there is a high likelihood of destruction of a large part of the information infrastructure and networks. This situation, in the absence of measures and sufficient alternative networks, would increase the likelihood of severe disruptions in the information and crisis management process. Such a situation, given the social and political contexts, is likely to trigger or intensify the efficacy and influence crises. CONCLUSION: Considering the drawbacks present in the information structure, i.e. the concentration in Tehran and the imminent destructive earthquake in Tehran, as well as the location of its physical buildings in the vicinity of earthquake faults, there would be many crises facing the country.