全球化进程中土耳其实体部门危机与财政政策

İpek Doğan Özer
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摘要

本研究考察了土耳其经济中实施的财政政策方面的危机,这些危机随着全球化的流行和蔓延而增加。该研究的重点是抵押贷款危机对土耳其的影响,以及从危机角度分析2018年实体部门指标。自19世纪以来,全球化一直处于上升趋势。随着全球化而实施的自由主义政策在某些情况下创造了新的机会,而这些政策在其他一些情况下则成为威胁的来源。经济危机是最大的威胁。一国经济对其他国家经济的依赖在危机的出现中起着重要作用。这种依赖关系导致危机迅速蔓延到其他国家。正是1月24日的决定导致了土耳其经济的这种依赖和蔓延。自由主义政策导致全球资本无规则和无限制的流动,特别是在短期内,这使得土耳其经济容易受到一些风险的影响。由于这些风险,土耳其的结构性问题,如债务利息在预算中所占比例高、通货膨胀、外贸赤字、经常帐户赤字、失业等继续存在。有时在某些部门,这些结构性问题表现为危机。危机发生在金融和信贷行业。经济危机是今天土耳其讨论的焦点,将与2008年的实体部门危机进行比较分析。实物部门的现状将被揭示出来。此外,还将讨论实施的货币政策是不够的,而财政政策是更成功的。因此,可以看到,在21世纪,凯恩斯主义政策将再次被提上议程。这项研究的预期结果是观察土耳其实体部门的衰退和通货膨胀。
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Crises of Real Sector and Fiscal Policies in Turkey in the Process of Globalization
This study examines the crises, which increases in prevalence and spreadsalong with globalization, in terms of the fiscal policies implemented in the Turkish economy. The focus of the study is the impact of Mortgage crises on Turkey and the analysis of the 2018 real sector indicators in terms of the crisis. Globalization has been on the rise since the 19th century. Liberal policies implemented with globalization creates new opportunities in some cases while these policies presents source of threat in some other cases. Economic crises are at the top of this threat. The dependence of the country’s economy on the economies of other countries plays a significant role in the emergence of a crisis. This kind of dependency relation leads crises to spread rapidly to other country/ countries. It was the 24 January Decisions leading to this dependence and contagion for Turkish economy. Liberal policies led to ruleless and limitless flow of global capital specially in the short term and this made Turkish economy vulnerable to some risks. Due to these risks the structural problems of Turkey as the high share of debt interest in the budget, inflation, foreign trade deficit, current account deficit, unemployment etc. have continued. Sometimes in some sectors these structural problems have manifested themselves as a crisis. The crisis arises in the financial and reel sectors. The economic crisis which is the focus of discussions in Turkey today will be analyzed in comparision with the 2008 crisis in terms of real sector. The current situation of the real sector will be revealed. Moreover, it will be discussed that the implemented monetary policies are insufficient and instead fiscal policies are more successful. Thus, it will be seen that in the 21th century the Keynesian policies are on the agenda again. The expected outcome of the study is observation of recession and inflation in the Turkish real sector.
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